Where’s the recession we were promised? In the summer of 2022, The Wall Street Journal surveyed economists from around the country and more than 60% said they predicted a recession within the next year. It wasn’t a wild assumption — the indicators were indicating. GDP was down as the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates to fight inflation. Which, historically, usually brings a recession.
Yet now in the summer of 2023… where is it? WSJ looks at the four main economic factors that have so far kept the recession at bay. Though that doesn’t mean we’re in the clear.
0:00 Why a recession was predicted
1:07 The usual three suspects were strong
2:50 A “mortgage winter” buffered rising interest rates
3:50 Why the recession watch isn’t over
News Explainers
Some days the high-speed news cycle can bring more questions than answers. WSJ’s news explainers break down the day’s biggest stories into bite-size pieces to help you make sense of the news.
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