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Off-cycle governorship elections will be held simultaneously today, November 11, in Kogi, Bayelsa and Imo states as fixed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). In this report, PAUL OKAH takes a look at the issues at stake.
Barring unforeseen circumstances, governorship elections will be held today in Kogi, Bayelsa and Imo states. In the three states, voters will be expected to either re-elect the incumbents (in the case of Imo and Bayelsa) or vote in a successor or an opposition governor (in the case of Kogi state).
According to INEC, 18 political parties are fielding candidates in Kogi, just as 17 political parties are fielding candidates Imo, while 16 political parties are also fielding candidates in Bayelsa state, with two political parties fielding female candidates in Bayelsa (ADP and APP), one in Kogi (Suleiman Fatima of the Zenith Labour Party), but none in Imo.
Blueprint Weekend’s investigations revealed that elections will be held in 10,470 polling units across the three states, excluding 40 polling units without registered voters (two polling units in Bayelsa and 38 in Imo are said to be without registered voters).
Battlegrounds
In Kogi state, the race to occupy the Lord Lugard Government House in Lokoja will be keenly contested among the 18 political parties that have fielded candidates in 3,508 polling units.
Attention of voters will be on the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate and former Auditor-General for Local Government, Ahmed Usman Ododo; former senator representing Kogi West and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Senator Dino Melaye; the candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Yakubu Murtala Ajaka; candidate of Labour Party, Barrister Adejoh Okeme, and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate, Leke Abejide.
It was gathered that 1,932,654 people are registered in the state, with 51 per cent of them registered in Kogi East Senatorial District, which has nine of the 21 local government areas of the state, including Idah, Ibaji, Igalamela/Odolu, Ofu, Dekina, Ankpa, Olamaboro, Basa and Omala local governments.
Former APC stalwart and the SDP candidate, Yakubu Murtala Ajaka, hails from Igalamela local government area (LGA) of Kogi East Senatorial District, which has led many to place him as the frontrunner in the election, given the ethnic and sectional tones that the campaigns have taken, especially as the zone is known for its large vote delivery and may determine the winner on November 11.
Moreover, the candidate of the Labour Party Adejoh Okeme, hails from Kogi East and may likely count on the outing of the party during the presidential and national assembly elections to swing votes in his favour, especially as he has been publicly endorsed by Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the party in 2023.
On the other hand, both Dino Melaye of the PDP and Leke Abejide of the ADC hail from Kogi West Senatorial District, which has seven local government areas, including Kaba Bunu, Kogi/Koto Karfe, Mopa Muro, Ijumu, Yagba East, Yagba West and Lokoja, which will culminate in their splitting votes in the zone.
On Saturday last week, a faction of the LP said in a joint release it had adopted Dino Melaye as its candidate for the election, which is seen as propaganda to swing votes.
Interestingly, the APC candidate, Ahmed Ododo, hails from Okene LGA of Kogi Central Senatorial District, which has only LGAs, including Adavi, Ajaokuta, Okehi, Okene, and Ogori-Magongo. His nomination from the same LGA that produced the outgoing governor, Yahaya Bello, has made his candidature a matter of concern amongst voters in the two other districts.
Also, Kogi West is the only senatorial district yet to produce a governor since the creation of the state 32 years ago, while Kogi East has produced every governor until the unprecedented emergence of Yahaya Bello, who became governor after the APC candidate, Abubakar Audu, died while the votes in the first round of that year’s election were still being counted. Bello was reelected in 2019.
Pundits are of the opinion that Governor Yahaya Bello will do everything within his power to ensure victory for the APC and will likely outwit the SDP candidate in Kogi East, which has the highest voting strength in the state.
Moreover, the APC is also facing challenges in Kogi Central, the home zone of its candidate and Governor Bello, since Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan of the PDP recovered the senatorial seat of the district through the courts, thereby giving hope for Dino Melaye and the PDP garnering votes in the zone.
Two-horse race in Bayelsa
In Bayelsa state, out of the 16 political parties participating in the election, it is expected to be a two-horse race between incumbent governor, Douye Diri of the PDP and former governor, Timipre Sylva of the APC.
Udengmobofa Eradiri of the Labour Party (LP) will also get some votes from the 1,056,862 registered voters expected to exercise their civic rights in the governorship election in the state. Diri, a former senator, House of Representatives member and commissioner for youth and sports, became governor following a Supreme Court judgement that disqualified the declared winner of the 2019 governorship election in the state, David Lyon.
The 2019 election in Bayelsa was between Diri of the PDP and Lyon of APC, with Lyon polling 352,552 votes to defeat Diri, who polled 143,172 votes.
However, a day before his swearing in, the Supreme Court sacked Lyon as governor-elect as a result of his deputy, Biobarakuma Degi-Eremienyo, forging the certificate he submitted to INEC.
The November 11 poll will be a litmus test as Diri will be banking on the fact that the PDP has led the state since the nation returned to democracy in 1999.
The election will be interesting, considering the fact that INEC recently re-amended its list of candidates for Bayelsa governorship election, restoring the names of Sylva and his running mate, Joshua Maciver, earlier removed by the commission, following court orders.
Recall that on October 31, the Court of Appeal in Abuja set aside the October 9 judgment given by Justice Donatus Okorowo of the Federal High Court, Abuja, nullifying the nomination of Sylva as the candidate of the APC in the Bayelsa governorship election, following a suit by a member of the APC in the state, Demesuoyefa Kolomo.
Sylva, the immediate past Minister of State for Petroleum, was also a former governor. He governed the state on the platform of the PDP before defecting to the APC. He will be counting on his accomplishments when he led the state and the clout of the APC at the national level.
Similarly, an engineer and former president of the Ijaw Youth Council (IYC) Worldwide, also commissioner and special adviser on youth matters in the NDDC, it is posited that the youth’s support for Udengs Eradiri may swing the pendulum in his favour.
Like his counterpart in Kogi, Eradiri will also be capitalising on the popularity of Peter Obi to cause an upset on Saturday.
Bayelsans will be hoping to vote for a governor whom they believe will turn around the misfortunes of the state.
During the last general elections, INEC moved voting in 141 polling units in the state to the following day after the voting processes were interrupted by thugs, with the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) members handling the affected polling units saying they were afraid of conducting elections there.
On Wednesday, while signing a peace accord ahead of the election, both Diri and Sylva accused each other of stockpiling arms for their thugs to cause mayhem, giving an insight to the violence that may break out the polls.
Three-horse race in Imo
Imo state has 2,419,922 registered voters expected to participate in the November 11 election. The major candidates are the incumbent governor, Hope Uzodinma of the APC, Athan Nneji Achonu of the LP and Samuel Anyanwu of the PDP.
Uzodimma, the current chairman of the Progressives Governors Forum (PGF), has been the governor since 2020, after the Supreme Court nullified the election of Emeka Ihedioha of the PDP and declared him the winner.
In August, Uzodimma dropped his deputy and unveiled Chinyere Ekomaru as his running mate for the poll, a move believed by pundits to have paved the way for his re-election.
On the other hand, the LP candidate, Athan Achonu, who served briefly in the National Assembly as a senator before the courts sacked him, will also bank on Peter Obi’s popularity and the LP’s success in the South-east during the February and March general elections to win.
Achonu has built a name for himself by embracing his disability and will become the nation’s first amputee governor if he wins the election.
On his part, the PDP candidate, Samuel Anyanwu, who was the former national secretary of the party before contesting the governorship election, is well-grounded in the state’s local politics.
A former local government chairman and State House of Assembly member from 2007 to 2015, Anyanwu will be banking on the popularity of the party in the South East to win the election.
Anyanwu, who contested for the PDP ticket in 2019, but was defeated by Emeka Ihedioha in the party primary, served as a senator in the 8th National Assembly.
Insecurity has been a major challenge in the South-east and it has led to the deaths of more than 1, 700 people between January 2021 and June 2023.
Deaths occur from protests, armed clashes, abductions, mob violence, and activities of secessionist groups, riots, electoral violence, and other causes.
INEC’s assurances
On Monday, the Kogi INEC Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC), Gabriel Longpet, disclosed that the Commission had recruited over 15,000 ad-hoc staff to help it in the smooth conduct of the polls.
“We have 3,508 polling units and each of these units will be manned by four ad-hoc staff aside from the security personnel that will be around to ensure peaceful conduct of the election. We shall deploy more staff and BVAS in densely populated polling units to complement those we are going to use. To be precise, we are going to use more than 900 back-up BVAS.
“This is because some polling units have more than 1,000 to 2,000 registered voters, and we have to split the number by creating more voting points for easy voting. This becomes imperative as we don’t want to give room for anything that will delay the process.
“As soon as there is a report of any BVAS failure or challenge, we shall provide another one and configure it to that polling unit for smooth continuation of voting. The security agencies have always given us assurances. On our part as a Commission, there is nothing we can do. We only rely on them, because we are not in control of the security,” he said.
IGP’s stern vows
On Tuesday, in a statement issued by the Force Public Relations Officer (PRO), ACP Olumuyiwa Adejobi, the Inspector General of Police (IGP), Kayode Egbetokun, promised that there would be credible elections in Bayelsa, Imo and Kogi states.
He said: “We have strategically deployed our personnel to these states to provide security and maintain law and order throughout the electioneering process, following training on professionalism, neutrality, and best practice carried out for officers and men deployed for the election duty. Our objective is to create an environment where all citizens can exercise their right to vote without fear or intimidation.
“In a bid to ensure a smooth electioneering processes, the Inspector-General of Police has ordered the distribution of an additional 220 operational vehicles, including water cannons, Armored Personnel Carriers, gun boats for riverine areas, helmets, bullet proof vests, tear gas canisters etc, to the three affected states to intensify security arrangements for the elections to augment the already deployed assets.
“Also, the IGP has ordered a restriction of all forms of vehicular movement on roads, waterways, and other forms of transportation, from 12.01 am to 6pm on election day in the affected states with the exception of those on essential services such as INEC officials, accredited electoral observers, ambulances responding to medical emergencies, firefighters, media, etc.
“All security aides and escorts should desist from accompanying their principals and politicians to polling booths and collation centres during the election as anyone found flouting this directive will be severely sanctioned. Only security personnel specifically assigned to election duties are to be seen within and around the designated election booths and centres.
“The IGP, therefore, enjoins all electorates and party supporters and leaders to shun vote buying, vote selling, hate speech, misinformation, and disinformation, snatching of ballot boxes, and other criminal act(s) as the Force and other security agencies will leave no stone unturned in ensuring that all violators of extant laws, most especially the Electoral Act 2022 (as amended), are caused to face the full wrath of the law.”
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