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The Federal Reserve Rate Hike:

-INFLATION:
On September 13th, overall inflation across all items rose by 3.7% year-over-year, up from the 3% that we saw back in June. In terms of the categories that saw a price increase, Frozen Vegetables are up 14.7% year-over-year, salad dressing is up 12.1%, uncooked beef is up 10.7%, and chewing gum is up 9.4%.

We also have car insurance up 19% from a year ago (which, is likely due to the fact that labor and materials are 17% more expensive today if you need a repair), shipping fares are up almost 10%, Pet Food is up 8.7%, and rent of a primary residence is up 7.8%.

-HOUSING:
National housing prices have increased by 2.5% year over year, however – monthly payments today are 19% more expensive than a year ago.

According to CoreLogic’s recent report, “The annual re-acceleration reflects six consecutive monthly gains, which drove prices some 5% higher compared to their bottom in February.” They also go on to say that the 11 states that saw home price declines were all in the West, “but since many of those markets have inventory shortages, that trend may be short-lived, and recent buyer competition will cause prices to heat up again.” In terms of where we might go in the future, it’s suggested that – since inventory is down from a year ago, “that’s an indication that home prices for 2024 will be roughly flat compared to now.”

-CAR PRICES:
Since 2012, the average new car has increased from $30,570 to more than $48,000. A report from UBS estimates that global car production “will exceed sales by 6% this year, leaving an excess of 5 million vehicles that will require price cuts to get sold off of lots.” This also suggests that prices could be coming down towards the end of 2023 or early 2024 – and, depending on the type of car you’re buying, this could already be happening early – for example, with Tesla.

-THE FEDERAL RESERVE MEETING:
The FED decided to pause their rate hike for the month of September until they can get a more definitive direction on how badly inflation persists. This means, their stance will largely be unchanged for the next month until November 1st, at which point – there’s a modest chance we’ll see one more 25 basis point hike.

As of now, it seems unlikely that they’ll be lowering interest rates anytime soon – at least until inflation is CONSISTENTLY below their 2% target – and, in terms of when that is, the market isn’t pricing in a strong chance of that happening until September 18th of 2024.

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