Tony Icheku Analyses the chances of All Progressives Congress candidate in the November 11, 2023 governorship election in Imo state, Senator Hope Uzodinma, Samuel Anyanwu and Athan Achonu of the Peoples Democratic Party and Labour Party respectively.
Three political parties, namely the All Progressives Congress; People’s Democratic Party, and Labour Party, currently traverse the State’s political space, creating an impression of a three-horse race.
An impression not entirely conclusive as 14 other political parties whose governorship candidates were cleared by the Independent National Electoral Commission are equally jostling to occupy Douglas House, in Owerri, the state capital.
Nonetheless, the loudness of the trio reflects the capacity of their governorship candidates and presence of party structures across the 27 local government areas of the State, thus it could really be a three-horse race all things being equal.
The APC governorship candidate, Governor Hope Uzodimma, is the incumbent seeking a second term. APC emerged in the State when former governor, Rochas Okorocha, defected from APGA in 2023. The party suffered a mild casualty when Okorocha’s misadventures in the succession game cost the party the State, however, it quickly recovered via the Supreme Court judgement of January 14, 2020 which removed PDP’s Emeka Ihedioha and declared Uzodimma as the duly elected governor of Imo State with the majority of lawful votes cast in the 2019 governorship election.
The PDP governed the State from 1999-2007, and briefly made a rebound in 2019 election when INEC declared Emeka Ihedioha winner with 273,404 votes.
The Labour Party emerged as a strong force in the State in the 2023 general election buoyed by the Peter Obi – it’s presidential candidate’s frenzy or what observers described as a populist yearning to overthrow the old political order which appear crippled by fresh leadership ideas for a new dawn.
The LP and ‘Obidatti’ movement, empowered by technology and youthful dynamism has quickly established its presence nationwide, Imo State inclusive.
Definitely the outcome of the Imo off season governorship poll would not be determined by the campaign promises of the governorship candidates to deliver on unemployment, infrastructure, healthcare, or insecurity – it’s biggest challenge so far, but by intrigues and subtle manipulation of the process.
Hanging like a dark cloud over the State is the outcome of the 2023 general Elelection which created the impression that votes do not count. Though various non-governmental and civil society organisations have embarked on various voters education workshops, the negative impression, especially at the grassroots point to voters apathy during the election. Thus, faced with a low voters turnout, it is the camp able to manipulate the low turnout that would run away with the prize.
Uzodimma’s albatross is the perception of Imo under his watch as a hotbed of insecurity and bloody violence, a phenomenon which has whittled down the socio-economic fortunes of Imo people.
His invitation on February 23, 2021 to the military to ‘crush’ the IPOB irredentists backfired and today few days to the election certain portions of Orlu, Oru, Okigwe and Osu local government areas are depopulated as the residents have all fled or the areas are under the grip of so-called unknown gunmen.
In addition, LP’s guber candidate, Senator Athan Achonu, argued that the climate of violence and insecurity in the State are further orchestrated by the governor as a strategy of suppressing dissent and pushing the opposition to the wall in order to record overwhelming victory in the November 11 election.
However, APC’s State Publicity Secretary, Cameron Duke, argued that “No LGA is off limits to any party or its candidates, and no LGA has been overtaken by hoodlums or non State actors. Insecurity is not significant enough to threaten participation in the election, in as much as we acknowledge that there is insecurity, but it is not significant enough to constitute a threat to the election “, he submitted.
Hope Uzodimma
The election would be a vote of confidence on Uzodimma. Is he really a ‘Supreme Court governor’ or not? The sobriquet ‘Supreme Court governor’ hangs on his neck like a milestone, an oblique reference to the January 14, 2020 Supreme Court judgment which pronounced him as the duly elected governor of Imo State with the majority of lawful votes cast in the 2019 governorship election. Though the decision of the apex Court is clear enough, but the perception on the streets refuses to buy into the apex Court’s argument that there are extraneous factors which catapulted Uzodimma from the fourth position he was placed by INEC after the election to the top, thus the taunting reference to him as ‘The Supreme Court governor’.
A joker in Uzodimma’s favour that may stop his opponents include the clannish card, plus the Federal might. He had been two-term Senator of Imo West Senatorial district which with its 12 local government areas clearly dictates who governs the State, Uzodimma is bent on riding on this wave to victory. Other political heavyweights from the zone including Senator Osita Izunaso have also promised him their support.
Uzodimma is working the clannish card to suit his interests, by playing up the almost non existent ‘Imo Charter of Equity’ as a non stop song. Eze Cletus Ilomuanya from the same zone once described the Charter of Equity which recommended rotation of the governorship as dead and buried, but Uzodimma has resurrected it, promising to pick his successor from the Owerri zone.
It seems a juicy bait, especially for the political elites from the zone who have bought into it hook, line and sinker.
In a divide and rule strategy, Uzodimma has sharply divided the Mbaise and Owerri sub-groups in the Imo East Senatorial district, with the Mbaise political elites literally eating from his palms.
The federal might would equally come in handy for Uzodimma as the APC-led Federal Government would not be willing to lose Imo, it’s strongest South-East ally either to the ubiquitous Labour Party or the fractured PDP.
APC, as a ruling party is an attractive bait to political elites, some seeking political rehabilitation and revival or as a safe haven to escape investigation or prosecution for alleged corruption charges.
Big names clustering around the Uzodimma ticket are described by observers as only bargaining for a piece of the pie and may not really have the political goodwill to deliver him at the poll.
Further enhancing Uzodimma’s chance is the APC structure which is spread across the length and breadth of Imo State and further consolidated under his administration through the victory by APC of all the 27 House of Assembly seats in the March 18, 2023 poll. Though the results are being contested by other parties which argue that the party rigged the process with some of the seats being contested either at the Elections Petition Tribunal or Court of Appeal.
From Okigwe or Imo North Senatorial district, APC stalwarts like former governor, Ikedi Ohakim, multi millionaire businessman, Tony Chukwu, are working round the clock to realize Uzodimma’s second term ambition.
Samuel Anyanwu
Two-term local government chairman, two-term House of Assembly member and former Senator, Samuel Nnaemeka Anyanwu, is from Owerri zone and has so much going for him, that only an unserious opponent would dismiss him with a wave of the hand.
The PDP, like APC equally boasts of widespread structures, but the bickering and sabotage rocking the party presently leaves much room for speculation whether Anyanwu’s potentials and enormous goodwill would draw the winning votes.
“Nov 11 is an election between Uzodimma and the masses, and Anyanwu is the face of the masses, he is a homeboy and a national figure”, says Sunny Ndukwu, the Deputy Director of Media and Publicity in the Divine Mandate Campaign Organization of Anyanwu.
Ndukwu further rationalized his position that Uzodimma’s despotic approach and intolerance manifested in the brutal assault visited on the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) President, Joe Ajaero, who was assaulted in his home State for coming to defend the interests of the workers.
But can the masses defend their votes? Ndukwu dodged the crucial question in this election and pointed to the State actors – The security agencies and INEC to do the needful as the only responsibility of the people is to vote their choice.
Observers see Anyanwu’s potentials being diminished by the squabbles and internal contradictions in the PDP. With it’s strongman, Emeka Ihedioha, chickening out early in the race from the governorship contest. Inside party sources finger Anyanwu who as the PDP’s National Secretary as being the reason for Ihedioha’s sudden exit, having outsmarted him in the run up to the governorship primary. Ihedioha’s withdrawal from the race eventually led to the exit from PDP of seven members of the state working committee (SWC) who subsequently defected to the APC, pledging loyalty to Uzodimma.
Though Ihedioha has refused to declare his support either for Anyanwu or Uzodimma, his indifference has led to a leadership vacuum in the PDP which Uzodimma is milking to his advantage and weakening Anyanwu’s chances.
However Ndukwu contends that PDP’s fate would not be determined by an individual, and argues that Anyanwu has become the rallying point of disenchanted Imolites.
“From the SDP, Action Alliance, AA and LP, various groups are indicating interest in working with Anyanwu to free Imo from it’s travails. The likes of Captain Emma Iheanacho, Senator Ifeanyi Ararume and well meaning Imolites are interested in moving towards a peaceful, progressive Imo which Anyanwu represents”, he argued.
For Anyanwu, the wind could blow either way. But his camp would miss the Ihedioha factor, indeed, it would seem the absence of Ihedioha in the race united Ihedioha’s clannish Mbaise people to solidly line up behind Uzodimma. The choice of a deputy from the Owerri elite by Uzodimma would all contribute in blunting Anyanwu’s sharp cutting edge.
Athan Achonu
Multi-millionaire businessman-politician, Senator Athan Achonu, from Okigwe zone is the newest kid on the block having emerged on the scene in 2015 when he won the Imo North Senate ticket for PDP, but a Court of Appeal judgement reversed his victory.
His emergence as LP flagbearer has considerably weakened the party due to internal bickering after its hotly contested governorship primary. With Achonu picking the LP ticket, several ‘Obedients’ who would have brought the Peter Obi wave to bear on the election quickly defected from the party.
Besides the exit of Ochudo Martin Agbaso, the Imo Director-General of the Obidatti Campaigns Council, other LP chieftains, like Major General Jack Ogunewe (rtd) left the party to pick the Action Alliance (AA) ticket. While others like Dr Sam Amadi have refused to support Achonu, others like Dr Fabian Ihekweme, a former Commissioner in the Uzodimma administration and one-time gubernatorial candidate had subtly defected to the Uzodimma camp.
Equally, the claims of Joseph Ukaegbu that he is LP’s flagbearer had been an avoidable distraction for the party, and its followers.
Achonu lacks Peter Obi’s zesty charisma and philosophical thrust on governance and had been unable to generate a massive masses or youthful following exemplified by the Obidient movement during the Presidential Election. However, the presence of the youthful Tony Nwulu, a former governorship candidate is seen as a plus for his camp.
But for now, it is difficult to determine who, between Anyanwu or Achonu would harvest the votes in the urban Owerri zone where collapsing infrastructure, especially road network have distanced the people from the government, and where a large turnout of voters are expected.
Indeed, a decisive mindshift by the people and a high turnout of voters might favour either the LP or PDP candidate, but there are fears that the insecurity scare may checkmate such development.
Findings show that Ihedioha was able to triumph in the 2019 poll by winning with the largest votes from the nine LGAs of Owerri zone and consolidating with votes from one or two LGs from Orlu and Okigwe zones. Would the same formula work for Achonu or Anyanwu?
While both Owerri and Okigwe zones are bitter that the Orlu zone has had more than its fair share of the governorship, occupying it for 20 out of 24 years of democracy, there does not appear so far an indication that Okigwe and Owerri would forge a common front and combine their joint 15 LGAs against Orlu’s 12, thus the Uzodimma joker, even as he seems assured that votes from Orlu’s 12 LGAs are safely under his belt.
How would it all play out? Uzodimma may ride on clannish sentiments to pool majority of the votes from Orlu zone while the votes from Okigwe and Owerri zones would be split between Anyanwu and Achonu.
Political observers would not stick out their neck to predict the outcome of the election contending that it would be an unpredictable race which last minute gameplan could swing in favour of any of the three strong contenders or where an alliance between two of the three, would narrow the fight to one versus one, rather than a three-horse race
Lesser Parties
Lesser parties in the race like Ogunewe’s AA, Anthony Ejiogu’s APGA and Ikenga Okere’s Accord Party, are seen as allies whose support would come in handy in the post-election intrigues and bargaining that would surely follow. In the pre-election period, their lack of resources and spread across the State has relegated them to the background.
