New Year 2024 is already here with us, and for Nigerians who have “crossed over,” the realities that shaped the past year, 2023, are likely to be put behind as individuals, families and the country at large focus on what the New Year has to offer. However, reviewing the past year is an important exercise, especially in the light of the admonition, which invites a people to have a clear understanding of where they are coming from, so that the same clarity can extend to knowing where they as a people are headed. For Nigeria and the Nigerian people, therefore, any flashback to 2023 will not be complete without a reflection on how the democratic process fared in terms of the year being a general election and a transition year. 2023 was largely shaped by the realities of a political transition, as well as the turbulence experienced on the security and economic fronts.
As a general elections year, and one in which the political transition from one administration to another was achieved, there was naturally a flurry of activities on the political fronts. The electoral process offered an opportunity for politicians of various partisan affiliations to test their popularity, by seeking elective offices. The 2023 presidential election proved to be one of the most keenly contested since Nigeria’s return to the current democratic dispensation in 1999.
As the outcome indicated, the three leading political parties that fielded candidates for the election won in 12 States each, while a fourth party won in one state. The All Progress Congress (APC) which fielded former Lagos State Governor, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu won in 12 states with a total of 8,794,726. He was closely trailed by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who also clinched 12 states and a total of 6,984, 520 votes. In third position was Peter Obi, the candidate of the Labour Party (LP) who also won in 12 states (11 states plus the Federal Capital Territory, FCT) with 6,101,533.
In fourth place was Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), who clinched the massive vote bank of Kano, but ended up with a total of 1,496,687 votes. Among others, one of the noticeable positive signs from the 2023 general elections is the role played by technology in the form of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), in trimming down the bogus results and turnout figures, which had become a disturbing pattern in Nigeria’s electoral landscape.
Interestingly, one of the high points of the 2023 general elections was that several powerful politicians lost their contested races to lesser-known candidates. A good example is the case of some former governors who lost their elections as they tried to use their power of incumbency as chief executives within their states to cross to Nigeria’s upper legislative chamber, the Senate. Apart from Simon Lalong of Plateau State who won his case at the Election Petition Tribunal, the other governors who lost their bid for the Senate are Samuel Ortom of Benue, Darius Ishaku of Taraba, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu, Atiku Bagudu of Kebbi, Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia, and Ben Ayade of Cross River.
Notwithstanding this positive signal, which many close watchers of the electoral process believe points to the gradual deepening of political accountability, the 2023 elections were similarly blighted by anomalies. Such anomalies include the violence unleashed to disrupt voting in some parts of the country, which undermined the participation and trust of Nigerians in the process and its outcomes. Disinformation similarly played a crucial role in the character of the process, as political actors deployed identity in the form of religion, ethnicity and gender to constrain the participation of certain demographics in the polls. In some states, there were ugly incidences of party thugs threatening voters of other orientations, if they refused to vote for political parties or candidates they preferred.
INEC’s management of these elections attracted loud criticisms and therefore deserves scrutiny. There is the need to take a deeper look at the election process if outcomes are to be accepted without rancour. The National Assembly would also do much to reform the system overall by making INEC run all political party primaries, which at present leaves much to be desired in terms of transparency and credibility.
Pockets of electoral violence and various forms of impunities were also documented in both the presidential and governorship polls. In terms of gender, while more women participated as candidates in the 2023 polls, there was a decline in the number of women elected to the National and State Houses of Assembly. A quick look at the data shows that the outcome of the 2023 polls left women more underrepresented at the National Assembly than they were compared to 2003 when only 24 women got elected. In 2023, the number of women elected is just 17. At the State level, figures from Dataphyte show that only 48 women won out of the 1,019 females who contested in the 2023 state assembly elections, translating to a 4.7 percent success rate for women.
On the economic front, the Year 2023 proved to be a difficult one for the Nigerian people because of the effects of the ongoing economic reforms of the Tinubu administration. Several citizen groups have expressed concerns that the cost of living crisis in Nigeria poses a serious existential threat to millions of Nigerians because of the economic reforms embarked upon by the administration since it was inaugurated on May 29, 2023.
There are worries that even though citizens have variously voiced their pains about the effect of the economic reform measures, relief measures have been slow in coming. The cost of food, transportation and other basic necessities has skyrocketed beyond the reach of many Nigerian families. With the removal of fuel subsidies, the price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) has shot up. This, in turn, has a multiplier effect on the economy. The high cost of transportation stems from the almost exclusive reliance of the country’s transport sector on petrol. Any increase in fuel prices creates a ripple effect, a development which does not bode well for the economy. Meanwhile, the collapse of the Naira continues, and we still do not effectively have a unified exchange rate.
On the positive side, however, there has been much talk about the positive streak of performance of Nigerian stocks and bonds, but the big gains in the stock market were yet to translate into the prosperity of the ordinary Nigerian in the period under review.
Nonetheless, 2023 also showcased the tendency of government officials to carry on with old habits of profligate spending, notwithstanding the scale of the economic challenges facing the country. Despite the lean times, issues of bogus and unwarranted expenditures came out from the 2024 budget hearing sessions in the National Assembly. These include the revised plans by the Federal Capital Territory Administration (FCTA) to spend N15 billion for the construction of the residence of the Vice President, up from the N7 billion provided for the project in 2010. There is also the budgetary provision of more than N1 billion which the Ministry of Trade and Investment claims is for the renovation of the Trade Office in Nigeria’s Embassy in Geneva. Similarly worthy of note, is the reported N2.7 billion spent by the Federal Government to sponsor a crowd of delegates to the Conference of Parties (COP) 28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the 57.6 billion budgeted by the National Assembly for the purchase of Sports Utility Vehicles (SUVs).
In terms of the security of lives and property, 2023 proved to be another year of sorrow, tears and blood. According to a report by Global Rights, the first three months of 2023 saw the killing of 1230 people while 658 were abducted. The data shows that in the first quarter of the year, banditry remained the largest cause of violent deaths across Nigeria with 360 casualties, while extra-judicial killings and farmers/herders clashes also accounted for significant losses in lives. Hundreds of lives have also been lost in recent incidents in Kaduna and Plateau States.
In Kaduna State, an accidental drone strike by the military took the lives of about 150 villagers who were observing religious festivities, while the Christmas Eve madness in Plateau left 160 persons dead.
While stakeholders have continued to condemn the killings and call for accountability, there is no mistaking the fact that Nigeria in 2023 continued with the trend of projecting itself as a killing field, where human life has lost its sacredness. Moreover, it has become woefully clear that all these violent movements – be they bandits, secessionist groups, Boko Haram factions, kidnapping gangs or Niger Delta militias – all have deep connections to the political class and external influences. Given how overstretched our military is, the carrot-and-stick strategy of the president’s team to pound these groups into negotiating seems wise, but their political masters and allies must be leashed and at least some of them brought before the courts to be made an example. How long must we suffer under these warlord politicians?
Despite all the gory tales of sorrows, economic woes, tears and blood which characterised 2023, there were a few cheery moments. One of those came from the sports field with the victory of Victor Osihmen as the Confederation of Africa Football (CAF) Africa Footballer of the Year, while Super Falcons, Asisat Oshoala clinched the women’s category of the prize.
Nonetheless, President Tinubu has promised that 2024 would be different, as 2023 was a planting season. In his Christmas message, the President alluded to farming which starts with the planting season, through the gestation period and then harvest time. He is positive that the new economic reforms will yield better returns this year. Focus, according to him, will be on security, the economy, education, health care and infrastructure development, among others. These are all promises which the people have become used to and therefore no longer excited at mere mentioning. The people need results, not proposals, not promises. They want their lives to be better and their environment safer.
